NBP head Glapiński: no rate hike expected in November for now

National Bank of Poland head Adam Glapiński explained the Monetary Policy Council's decision to hold rates. According to him, inflation rose because of a jump in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East; in September prices were 4% higher year on year against a target of 2.5% ± 1 percentage point.

Glapiński said that, on the data available to him, a rate hike at the November meeting is “not foreseen for now”, but he does not rule it out. On current forecasts, inflation may return to within the target range in October.

Among the risks he named rapid growth in demand (GDP in the second quarter almost +4%), rising prices of agricultural commodities and the 2027 draft budget with a general government deficit of 7.1% of GDP. The Ceny Paliwa Niżej programme runs until the end of the year; whether it will be extended is unknown.