Poll: KO leads, but the ruling coalition loses its Sejm majority

According to a United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, if elections were held in early October, 30.6% would vote for Civic Coalition (−0.9 pp from the end of September), 18% for PiS (+0.8), 14.1% for Confederation (+1.2), 9% for Grzegorz Braun's party (−1.9), 7.4% for Lewica (−1.4), and 5.7% for Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus.

Outside the Sejm would be PSL (4.4%), Razem (3.9%) and Polska 2050 (0.5%). 6.4% are undecided.

Converted into seats using Professor Jarosław Flis's method, KO would get 190 seats and Lewica 30. Together that is 220, 11 fewer than needed for a majority. The four right-wing parties would have 240.