Core inflation in September at 3.1%, below forecasts; two other NBP measures rose

Core inflation in Poland in September 2026 stood at 3.1% year on year, the National Bank of Poland said on October 15. That is below August's 3.3% and above June's 3.0%, and the same as in July. The economists' consensus expected 3.2%.

Two other core inflation measures published by the NBP rose more noticeably: inflation excluding administered prices reached 4.1%, and excluding the most volatile prices 4.0%. The outlet describes the situation as at least ambiguous.

The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose to 4.1% year on year in September from 3.4% in August, mainly because of fuel price increases. According to the outlet, core inflation has stabilised above the NBP's 2.5% target but within the ±1 pp tolerance band. In February 2026 it returned to 2.5% after more than six years above target.